Stoke and Copeland By-election Thursday February 23rd 2017: Labour's to lose?

Thursday 23^rd February is the date for the two by elections in Copeland and Stoke on Trent.  The Cumbrian seat of Copeland will be contested due to a resignation from Jamie Reed, who has occupied the vacant seat since 2005.  Stoke on Trent’s vacancy is due to Tristram Hunt taking up a post with the Victoria and Albert museum, leaving a seat he has occupied since 2010.

This blog will explore the issues that have arisen because of this by-election, not least from that of the issues surrounding the Labour Party.

Copeland

Andrew Gwyne, Labour MP for Denton (Manchester), was amongst the plethora of Labour MPs who joined the campaign trail in Copeland.  This week he reported that there is widespread panic across the Labour Party going into the Copeland by-election.  This is not difficult to see when you consider some statistics that would leave Labour rather embarrassed should they lose:

i. Labour has held this seat for over 80 years

Due to boundary changes in 1983, renaming it Copeland from Whitehaven, it has only belonged to Labour and has become somewhat of a core labour territory.   The last conservative to be elected for this seat was in 1924. 

Losing a ‘safe seat’ here could be detrimental to Labour’s claims of being a credible opposition.

ii. Sellafield power station is based here. 

As Labour are ideologically pro-nuclear, having Sellafield power station here should be something that should considerably work in Labour’s favour.  Jeremy Corbyn has historically being opposed to nuclear power and has being active on a number of occasions.  

Andy Barnes of the Financial Times visited Copeland recently and the general opinion is that this has not changed.  Despite having a U-turn publically, Corbyn has not been convincing and could also prove to be detrimental to Labour’s defence of this seat.

 iii. The NHS is under turmoil in Cumbria

Recent developments in Copeland locality NHS services have left the government facing tough questions on the future of it.  It has been reported that constituents may need to travel up to 1 hour to Carlisle for NHS services. 

This includes, not least, maternal services for expecting families.  This should work in Labour’s favour as a recent Theresa May visit was met with hostility at Mrs May avoiding key questions about this.

Even with it being a Labour constituency where this is happening, it should still be factor why Labour should not lose from this position

Stoke on Trent

Financial Times political editor Sebastian Payne recently visited Stoke on Trent and reported that Labour’s main threat comes from the UK Independence Party.  Their leader, Paul Nuttall, is hoping to usurp the Labour seat of 67 years.


Some factors must be considered when the suggestion of a viable UKIP resurgence is mentioned such as Stoke’s EU referendum result:

Votes cast: 117,680 (65.7%)

Remain: 36,027

Leave: 81,563
 

Allied to this, Paul Nuttall’s campaign has attacked the lack of changes that Labour has made to Stoke on Trent.  Not least that of key industries, such as Aynsley China, closing their doors to trade.

However, some research once again proves that Labour rather embarrassed to lose this seat they have occupied since its formation in 1950:

 i. UKIP have a poor campaign record

History tells us that UKIP do not have an exemplary record of winning seats.  This is largely due to their campaigning techniques, which are far inferior to that of the Labour Party machine.  This was evident in the Rotherham Council by-elections when they lost second place to Lib Dems.  This should have been a more successful seat considering how Rotherham voted in the EU referendum. 

ii. Labour have a 5000+ majority

This will be difficult to overcome.  The 67 years and 5000+ majority means that UKIP have a lot of work to do in order to convince a key demographic of voters that their votes would be better suited to UKIP.  I hereby refer you back to point I. again.


iii. Paul Nuttall’s Hillsborough claims

This was a moment that UKIP could have very well done without.  Retracting a statement on having a friend he lost in Hillsborough may well be something that may have sealed Paul Nuttall’s fate.  His absence in the recent hustings will also be noticed amongst the people of Stoke and could be the difference on the night.

 

So there we have it.  A labour win for both should be on the cards and Jeremy Corbyn lives to fight another day.

On the other hand, how much are you prepared to put on that…?